Research Paper
The Arithmetic of a Lifetime: A 50-State Model of Lifetime Tax Burden, and a Review of a Prior Estimate
This report constructs a standardized model of lifetime earnings, property, sales, and vehicle-sales taxation across all 50 states and Washington, D.C. Under its assumptions, Ohio's modeled lifetime burden is $441,440, compared with a population-weighted national average of $502,326. It explains why property taxes drive much of the interstate variation and documents important limitations, including assumed universal homeownership and excluded local income taxes.
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RESEARCH Overview
Executive Summary
This report constructs a standardized model of lifetime earnings, property, sales, and vehicle-sales taxation across all 50 states and Washington, D.C. Under its assumptions, Ohio's modeled lifetime burden is $441,440, compared with a population-weighted national average of $502,326. It explains why property taxes drive much of the interstate variation and documents important limitations, including assumed universal homeownership and excluded local income taxes.
Insights
Key Findings
- Population-weighted national modeled average: $502,326; unweighted 51-jurisdiction average: $483,973.
- Ohio ranks 34th of 51 jurisdictions at $441,440 under the standardized assumptions.
- Property taxes are the largest source of interstate variation in this model.
Framework
Methodology & Scope
Comparative-static model using a constant $63,360 annual wage, a 45-year working life, state-specific property taxes, standardized consumption, and vehicle purchase assumptions. Current-law and current-dollar comparison, not a lifetime forecast.
context & qualifications
Limitations & Notes
Universal homeownership is assumed from age 40; local income taxes, FICA and annual vehicle property taxes are excluded. Spending and wage assumptions do not reflect state-specific household circumstances.
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